A Roll of the Dice

Over the last few years there has been a noticeable decline in the accuracy of the weather forecasting in this part of the world. When I moved to Japan in 2007 I was often amazed that the five day forecast was accurate to within three hours whenever precipitation was expected. Lately, however, most 12-hour forecasts are so wildly wrong that news programs may as well not have them at all and jump straight into sports. Today is a fine example of this as the forecast last night was for today to consist primarily of steady rain with short periods of drizzle.

The reality was nothing of the sort.

Blue Skies, Red Leaves

Sometimes I think about making a joke website that “predicts the weather” for various parts of the country a week in advance using semi-random number generators and historic weather patterns, then compares the faux forecasts with the actual weather for that day after the fact. Just for giggles, it would likely make sense to also include the national weather service’s forecasts to see who gets it more correct more often. My only concern would be having a better average, given that my statistical game would be running on a cheap server rather than one of the fastest supercomputers on the planet like the Japan Weather Service uses.